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Using models to guide field experiments: a priori predictions for the CO2 response of a nutrient- and water-limited native Eucalypt woodland.

Identifieur interne : 001471 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001470; suivant : 001472

Using models to guide field experiments: a priori predictions for the CO2 response of a nutrient- and water-limited native Eucalypt woodland.

Auteurs : Belinda E. Medlyn [Australie] ; Martin G. De Kauwe [Australie] ; Sönke Zaehle [Allemagne] ; Anthony P. Walker [États-Unis] ; Remko A. Duursma [Australie] ; Kristina Luus [Allemagne] ; Mikhail Mishurov [Suède] ; Bernard Pak [Australie] ; Benjamin Smith [Suède] ; Ying-Ping Wang [Australie] ; Xiaojuan Yang [États-Unis] ; Kristine Y. Crous [Australie] ; John E. Drake [Australie] ; Teresa E. Gimeno [Australie] ; Catriona A. Macdonald [Australie] ; Richard J. Norby [États-Unis] ; Sally A. Power [Australie] ; Mark G. Tjoelker [Australie] ; David S. Ellsworth [Australie]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:26946185

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

The response of terrestrial ecosystems to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (Ca ), particularly under nutrient-limited conditions, is a major uncertainty in Earth System models. The Eucalyptus Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (EucFACE) experiment, recently established in a nutrient- and water-limited woodland presents a unique opportunity to address this uncertainty, but can best do so if key model uncertainties have been identified in advance. We applied seven vegetation models, which have previously been comprehensively assessed against earlier forest FACE experiments, to simulate a priori possible outcomes from EucFACE. Our goals were to provide quantitative projections against which to evaluate data as they are collected, and to identify key measurements that should be made in the experiment to allow discrimination among alternative model assumptions in a postexperiment model intercomparison. Simulated responses of annual net primary productivity (NPP) to elevated Ca ranged from 0.5 to 25% across models. The simulated reduction of NPP during a low-rainfall year also varied widely, from 24 to 70%. Key processes where assumptions caused disagreement among models included nutrient limitations to growth; feedbacks to nutrient uptake; autotrophic respiration; and the impact of low soil moisture availability on plant processes. Knowledge of the causes of variation among models is now guiding data collection in the experiment, with the expectation that the experimental data can optimally inform future model improvements.

DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13268
PubMed: 26946185


Affiliations:


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<name sortKey="Medlyn, Belinda E" sort="Medlyn, Belinda E" uniqKey="Medlyn B" first="Belinda E" last="Medlyn">Belinda E. Medlyn</name>
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<name sortKey="Zaehle, Sonke" sort="Zaehle, Sonke" uniqKey="Zaehle S" first="Sönke" last="Zaehle">Sönke Zaehle</name>
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<name sortKey="Smith, Benjamin" sort="Smith, Benjamin" uniqKey="Smith B" first="Benjamin" last="Smith">Benjamin Smith</name>
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<name sortKey="Wang, Ying Ping" sort="Wang, Ying Ping" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Ying-Ping" last="Wang">Ying-Ping Wang</name>
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<name sortKey="Yang, Xiaojuan" sort="Yang, Xiaojuan" uniqKey="Yang X" first="Xiaojuan" last="Yang">Xiaojuan Yang</name>
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<name sortKey="Crous, Kristine Y" sort="Crous, Kristine Y" uniqKey="Crous K" first="Kristine Y" last="Crous">Kristine Y. Crous</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
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<name sortKey="Drake, John E" sort="Drake, John E" uniqKey="Drake J" first="John E" last="Drake">John E. Drake</name>
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<name sortKey="Gimeno, Teresa E" sort="Gimeno, Teresa E" uniqKey="Gimeno T" first="Teresa E" last="Gimeno">Teresa E. Gimeno</name>
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<name sortKey="Macdonald, Catriona A" sort="Macdonald, Catriona A" uniqKey="Macdonald C" first="Catriona A" last="Macdonald">Catriona A. Macdonald</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Norby, Richard J" sort="Norby, Richard J" uniqKey="Norby R" first="Richard J" last="Norby">Richard J. Norby</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:affiliation>Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, 1 Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, 1 Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Tennessee</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Power, Sally A" sort="Power, Sally A" uniqKey="Power S" first="Sally A" last="Power">Sally A. Power</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>2751</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Tjoelker, Mark G" sort="Tjoelker, Mark G" uniqKey="Tjoelker M" first="Mark G" last="Tjoelker">Mark G. Tjoelker</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>2751</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Ellsworth, David S" sort="Ellsworth, David S" uniqKey="Ellsworth D" first="David S" last="Ellsworth">David S. Ellsworth</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>2751</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series>
<title level="j">Global change biology</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1365-2486</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2016" type="published">2016</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc>
<textClass>
<keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en">
<term>Carbon Cycle</term>
<term>Carbon Dioxide (metabolism)</term>
<term>Climate Change</term>
<term>Ecosystem</term>
<term>Eucalyptus (metabolism)</term>
<term>Forests</term>
<term>Photosynthesis</term>
<term>Water</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Changement climatique</term>
<term>Cycle du carbone</term>
<term>Dioxyde de carbone (métabolisme)</term>
<term>Eau</term>
<term>Eucalyptus (métabolisme)</term>
<term>Forêts</term>
<term>Photosynthèse</term>
<term>Écosystème</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="metabolism" xml:lang="en">
<term>Carbon Dioxide</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="metabolism" xml:lang="en">
<term>Eucalyptus</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="métabolisme" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Dioxyde de carbone</term>
<term>Eucalyptus</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en">
<term>Carbon Cycle</term>
<term>Climate Change</term>
<term>Ecosystem</term>
<term>Forests</term>
<term>Photosynthesis</term>
<term>Water</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Changement climatique</term>
<term>Cycle du carbone</term>
<term>Eau</term>
<term>Forêts</term>
<term>Photosynthèse</term>
<term>Écosystème</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The response of terrestrial ecosystems to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (Ca ), particularly under nutrient-limited conditions, is a major uncertainty in Earth System models. The Eucalyptus Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (EucFACE) experiment, recently established in a nutrient- and water-limited woodland presents a unique opportunity to address this uncertainty, but can best do so if key model uncertainties have been identified in advance. We applied seven vegetation models, which have previously been comprehensively assessed against earlier forest FACE experiments, to simulate a priori possible outcomes from EucFACE. Our goals were to provide quantitative projections against which to evaluate data as they are collected, and to identify key measurements that should be made in the experiment to allow discrimination among alternative model assumptions in a postexperiment model intercomparison. Simulated responses of annual net primary productivity (NPP) to elevated Ca ranged from 0.5 to 25% across models. The simulated reduction of NPP during a low-rainfall year also varied widely, from 24 to 70%. Key processes where assumptions caused disagreement among models included nutrient limitations to growth; feedbacks to nutrient uptake; autotrophic respiration; and the impact of low soil moisture availability on plant processes. Knowledge of the causes of variation among models is now guiding data collection in the experiment, with the expectation that the experimental data can optimally inform future model improvements.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Allemagne</li>
<li>Australie</li>
<li>Suède</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region>
<li>Tennessee</li>
</region>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="Australie">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Medlyn, Belinda E" sort="Medlyn, Belinda E" uniqKey="Medlyn B" first="Belinda E" last="Medlyn">Belinda E. Medlyn</name>
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<name sortKey="Crous, Kristine Y" sort="Crous, Kristine Y" uniqKey="Crous K" first="Kristine Y" last="Crous">Kristine Y. Crous</name>
<name sortKey="De Kauwe, Martin G" sort="De Kauwe, Martin G" uniqKey="De Kauwe M" first="Martin G" last="De Kauwe">Martin G. De Kauwe</name>
<name sortKey="Drake, John E" sort="Drake, John E" uniqKey="Drake J" first="John E" last="Drake">John E. Drake</name>
<name sortKey="Duursma, Remko A" sort="Duursma, Remko A" uniqKey="Duursma R" first="Remko A" last="Duursma">Remko A. Duursma</name>
<name sortKey="Ellsworth, David S" sort="Ellsworth, David S" uniqKey="Ellsworth D" first="David S" last="Ellsworth">David S. Ellsworth</name>
<name sortKey="Gimeno, Teresa E" sort="Gimeno, Teresa E" uniqKey="Gimeno T" first="Teresa E" last="Gimeno">Teresa E. Gimeno</name>
<name sortKey="Macdonald, Catriona A" sort="Macdonald, Catriona A" uniqKey="Macdonald C" first="Catriona A" last="Macdonald">Catriona A. Macdonald</name>
<name sortKey="Pak, Bernard" sort="Pak, Bernard" uniqKey="Pak B" first="Bernard" last="Pak">Bernard Pak</name>
<name sortKey="Power, Sally A" sort="Power, Sally A" uniqKey="Power S" first="Sally A" last="Power">Sally A. Power</name>
<name sortKey="Tjoelker, Mark G" sort="Tjoelker, Mark G" uniqKey="Tjoelker M" first="Mark G" last="Tjoelker">Mark G. Tjoelker</name>
<name sortKey="Wang, Ying Ping" sort="Wang, Ying Ping" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Ying-Ping" last="Wang">Ying-Ping Wang</name>
</country>
<country name="Allemagne">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Zaehle, Sonke" sort="Zaehle, Sonke" uniqKey="Zaehle S" first="Sönke" last="Zaehle">Sönke Zaehle</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Luus, Kristina" sort="Luus, Kristina" uniqKey="Luus K" first="Kristina" last="Luus">Kristina Luus</name>
</country>
<country name="États-Unis">
<region name="Tennessee">
<name sortKey="Walker, Anthony P" sort="Walker, Anthony P" uniqKey="Walker A" first="Anthony P" last="Walker">Anthony P. Walker</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Norby, Richard J" sort="Norby, Richard J" uniqKey="Norby R" first="Richard J" last="Norby">Richard J. Norby</name>
<name sortKey="Yang, Xiaojuan" sort="Yang, Xiaojuan" uniqKey="Yang X" first="Xiaojuan" last="Yang">Xiaojuan Yang</name>
</country>
<country name="Suède">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Mishurov, Mikhail" sort="Mishurov, Mikhail" uniqKey="Mishurov M" first="Mikhail" last="Mishurov">Mikhail Mishurov</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Smith, Benjamin" sort="Smith, Benjamin" uniqKey="Smith B" first="Benjamin" last="Smith">Benjamin Smith</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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